92% benefit academically, according to K12

The press releases sent out by K12 look impressive: 92% of parents in Utah Virtual Academies agree they benefited academically

It is even conducted by Edge Research, so it must be impressive. I mean, 92% is an overwhelming percentage in agreement. And, we all want kids to 'benefit academically.'

Take a closer look at the survey and the results begin to unravel. Let's look at the details:

1. 92% is actually based on the number of parents who responded to the survey, and not an overall percentage of families. That means the survey was conducted as a response survey. This typically means you will receive biased results because it is not representative of the overall population but rather dependent upon the response of the participants of their own volition.

2. According to the survey, to achieve a 100% response rate, the UTVA survey should have received 1,510 responses -- that is how many parents there are in the UTVA database of families.

3. How many responded? 1,000? 800? 500? -- actually, only 142 parents responded -- that equates to a 9% response rate. You read that correctly, only 9% of the potential population base responded.

4. A more accurate assessment would be 92% of the 9% of parents who responded agreed their children benefited academically from the curriculum (130 of the 142). 91% of parents in UTVA did not respond to the survey.

5. This means the headline of the press release is, at best, inaccurate. At worst, well, I will leave that one alone.

What does this mean overall? K12 is working hard to write a story, and they hope you only read the headlines.

It's time to stop blurring the truth. It's time to spend less time on press releases, and more time on crafting a story worth writing that leads to one worth sharing.

houston@figment-consulting.com

The K12 ship continues to go under water

Over a year ago I penned a blog (Why K12 will struggle) that stated if Agora Cyber pulled their management contract from K12 that the K12 stock would drop into the $13 range, perhaps even as low as $12. Shortly after it was announced that Agora was indeed pulling their management contract, K12's stock plummeted into that range. It is difficult to overcome a loss of 11,000+ students.

The silver lining at the time was K12 continued to provide curriculum to Agora under the new agreement reached. There was spin associated with this new arrangement but what was missed was that it was a temporary association. Within the next 2-3 years, Agora will pull their curriculum from K12 as they work to build their own (and while that is a mess, that is another story entirely).

A few months ago I wrote a blog The K12 ship is sinking and laid out some reasons why I believe they are on a steady decline.

As I write this, their stock price is $8.91 per share. My guess is they would love to see it in the $12-13 range that only a year ago was considered dismal performance.

So, what next? What does the future hold? Of course I can't say for sure but I can point to indicators:

1. Watch what happens when Agora pulls the curriculum

2. Pay attention to the potential closure of Tennessee Virtual Academy at the end of this academic year

3. Pay close attention to the California Attorney General's investigation into for-profit providers which includes K12

4. Watch for other virtual school boards either threaten to or actually pull their management contracts from K12 over the next two years

5. And, pay attention to the academic performance in Maine and North Carolina -- the narrative K12 has wanted to tell the past few years was they were in transition and now putting students first. Both Maine and North Carolina were launched with the new management in place so this will be the true test as to whether or not the transition was real or simply smoke and mirrors

Where there's smoke . . .

houston@figment-consulting.com

Union County TN opts not to enroll new students in TNVA this year

Last year at this time, Union County fought with the State of Tennessee and won in order to allow 626 new students enter Tennessee Virtual Academy (TNVA) for the 2014-2015 academic year. 

This year, after a court ruled TNVA could remain open for another year, Union County opted to go in a different direction and only allow returning students to be a part of TNVA this year. That means no new enrollments in the virtual school, even if current students leave.

Being a proponent of virtual schooling (though no fan of the current models in action) I have mixed feelings about this move. However, based on the past struggles of TNVA and their newly-released TCAP scores for 2015, I do believe it to be the right one for this year.

For TNVA to avoid a shutdown next summer there is much work to be done. K12, the company behind TNVA, likes to tout that students who stay with them longer perform better on state tests. This year should allow them to prove it (or not). 

There's no more excuses available for them. Union County took a good first step. Now, it's time for results.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Questions from readers on TNVA, Manifesto, and even Agora Cyber

From time to time I enjoy sharing some questions I receive from readers of my blog here. As always, I wish to begin by saying how much I appreciate all who take moments from their day to read what I have to say. I do not take it lightly, and I am honored that the readership continues to grow.

Now, on to some questions.

Q: Agora Cyber severed their contract with K12 on the management side late 2014 with their charter up for renewal. Do you think TNVA should have done the same thing in light of what has transpired the past few days?

A: I actually offered up a solution for the TNVA issue that included keeping the school open if they found a new provider of services. I am not sure if that was ever on the table nor can I be certain it would have prevented it from being closed as it appears it will be. Contractual arrangements between K12 and Union County (TNVA home school district) might have prevented this option as well.

Opening the door to that possibility could have turned the debate from a Yes-No argument over closing TNVA to finding ways to serve the 1300 students moving forward.

Q: As a teacher at Agora Cyber I am troubled with the transition currently taking place and have trust issues with the new leadership team and concerns about their ability to lead the school. Any advice here in PA for a concerned teacher and are there any cyber/virtual schools that are "doing it the right way" as you say?

A: Transitions are tough so I feel for you. While I am not aware of the specifics of what is going on with Agora one of the first steps new leadership should take does not involve processes or organization charts. Instead, it involves developing trust. Change inherently brings with it trepidation and too often leadership forgets the emotional side of the change while focusing on the part that can be measured. Again, not sure this is what is going on with Agora but yours is not the first email expressing these types of feelings.

My hope is it all works out properly because there are 10,000+ students that are being impacted with this transition.

And yes, there are virtual schools (even in PA) that are working hard to serve students properly. Typically they fly under the radar because they are focused on the task at hand. In a future post I will try to highlight some that are doing virtual right.

Q: In your Manifesto you talk about a "culture of retention," can you explain that more?

A: Virtual schools, like other public schools, are funded based on count dates throughout the year. Some have single count dates while other states have basically rolling count dates. This means that schools are funded for the number of students they are serving based on those counts.

Too many virtual schools are focused on these count dates as the barometer for their recruiting success. In my opinion, they should instead focus on the number of students they are serving on the last day of the school year -- how many students stayed with them after enrolling. Schools that have a culture of retention start here.

Second, schools with this type of culture understand retention and enrollment are synonymous. Retention begins when a family first says "Yes" not in the spring when it is time for families to begin making decisions about the next school year.

Third, schools with a retention culture are more concerned about proper fit than overall numbers. While it is up to the family to ultimately decide if the public virtual school is right for them, the schools carry the burden of communicating properly to the family to help them with this decision. Virtual schools talk about educational choice yet treat it like a sales approach. Instead, a school with a retention culture must view this as a decision process to determine appropriate fit. This means communicating what it takes from the student and the family to succeed in this environment.

As a virtual school, would you rather enroll 500 students and keep 90% of them, or enroll 1,000 students and lose 50% of them? One is a retention approach and the other a sales approach.

Q: Do you think blended learning is the answer?

A: I actually do not believe there is one, single answer. And, I wonder if we are even asking the right questions when it comes to educating our kids. We work so hard to standardize education yet we celebrate diversity in life. We look for ways to scale when data continually demonstrates the effectiveness of more personalized approaches. We look to programs, processes and technology to solve our problems when perhaps we should be looking at the relationships more.

Blended learning can be and should be part of the solution, just as virtual and traditional brick-and-mortar schools should be. My hope is we take an "And" approach instead of an "Either/Or" approach. Let's look for ways to include instead of deny.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Tennessee Virtual Academy could cause a ripple effect

Last week a Tennessee judge refused an injunction request to keep the Tennessee Virtual Academy (TNVA) open, and just today the State Legislature appeared to close the door on TNVA when a last-ditch effort to keep it open was refuted.

I have written about this ongoing issue extensively here in my blog so I will not repeat all of it here. However, what will be interesting to watch over the next few years is, if TNVA is actually forced to close, will it be the beginning of a ripple effect across the country for virtual schools, particularly those operated by K12?

Make no mistake, the legal battle in Tennessee is only now just beginning so this is far from over. But, the signs are pointing to TNVA having to close at the end of this school year, and if that is the case, what other states are watching?

Massachusetts? California? Pennsylvania? Ohio? Colorado?

It's a shame really. Virtual schooling can be a revolutionary concept, if done properly. And, situations like this give it a black eye.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Tennessee Senate Passes Virtual School Authorization Act 31-0

Previously I had stated that I hope the Tennessee Legislature can separate the concept of virtual schooling from the debate going on over the performance of Tennessee Virtual Academy.

With the Tenn. State Senate voting Monday 31-0 to extend the Virtual Schools Authorization until 2019, it would appear they are doing just that.

Well done. Well done.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Tennessee Virtual Academy (TNVA) Parents Sue to Keep School Open

On Thursday, March 12, two Tennessee families launched the next phase of keeping TNVA open -- via lawsuit, and the real battle has begun.

Could the solution be a simple one?

houston@figment-consulting.com

A possible solution for Tennessee Virtual Academy?

As a consultant in the virtual school world, and a strong proponent of the concept of virtual learning, I am fascinated with the debate now going on here in Tennessee -- should Tennessee Virtual Academy (TNVA) be closed due to poor performance, or does it merit more time to demonstrate gains?

Oh sure, the overall issue at hand right now is the furtherance of the virtual school bill authored by Tennessee Sen. Dolores Gresham (R) to extend the Tennessee Virtual Schools Act to 2019. But, make no mistake, the real issue at hand is the fate of TNVA and K12.

The lines have been drawn. On February 15, Tennessee Rep. Joe Pitts (D) penned an editorial Time for Tennessee Virtual Academy to go -- probably guessing you can determine his stance on it.

Then, not to be outdone, on February 26, Cathy Berg, parent leader of the Tennessee chapter of PublicSchoolOptions.org, offered a rebuttal: Pitts is wrong about Virtual Academy.

Rep. Pitts seems to take issue primarily with the idea of a for-profit company running a public school -- ". . ., it is the structure and profit-taking by this company (K12) that is failing." In addition, he states, "Furthermore, there are now some who want to allow for-profit companies to operate charter schools in our state. Not a good idea."

Pitts also lays out the core of what is going on here. If TNVA, which has scored a "1" for the first three years of its existence (on a scale of 1-5 with "1" being worst performing), can score a "3" or higher then they obtain a reprieve for one year. If not, then they may have to close their doors -- barring any special legislative or legal actions to keep them open.

On the other side of the spectrum, Ms. Berg, who has one child in TNVA, says TNVA is actually now "one of the fastest-improving schools in the state." She then proceeds to try and offer additional counterpoints to Pitts' argument for closure.

So far from what I have seen the disputation is a Yes-No offering: Should TNVA be closed? Yes, or No.

My thought is what if a different question was asked? What if the Tennessee Legislature offered an opportunity for TNVA to remain open if they sought out another provider of services, removing K12 from the equation? Just something to consider for those wanting to put the students first.

Or, perhaps TNVA can demonstrate true academic progress by scoring a "3" this year and negating this parley altogether.

More to come on this.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Is closing Tennessee Virtual Academy the answer?

Former Tennessee Education Commissioner Kevin Huffman threatened to close down the Tennessee Virtual Academy (TNVA) due to poor academic performance. And, in fact, there is a sunset law coming into play this year that should the TN Legislature not extend the law, the school would have to close.

TNVA currently serves approximately 1300 kids across this State I call home. Recently hundreds of TNVA parents, students, teachers and administration made their way to Nashville to plead for it to remain open.

I have recently had numerous families in TNVA reach out to me for my thoughts on it, and have turned down a few interviews for stories related to TNVA and whether or not it deserves to be closed.

And now, four paragraphs into this post and I have yet to touch on answering the question I posed in the title: Is closing TNVA the answer?

First, I would re-frame the question. Instead of arguing over whether or not TNVA deserves to remain open, make the question related to the 1300 students that would be impacted by this decision.

If TNVA were to close, what choice would each student have for school next year? Why did they choose TNVA this year? How would it benefit each student by, in essence, returning them to the place they left because it was not meeting their needs?

In reality, there is not a single answer that will suffice here. There are, in fact, 1300 different answers to this question.

Second, let's not make this a Yes or No question and answer. Instead, what if we explored ways in which to transform TNVA and its model into one that will serve the students and families. What if TNVA attracted students that would be a better fit for its model? What if TNVA built itself around even some of the Nine Essentials I proposed in an earlier post related to virtual schools? What if TNVA adapted a blended version of itself in key areas of the State? What if . . .?

Instead of making this a decision related to staying open or closing, make this a decision about transforming the model (not tweaking) moving forward. Make it a decision about the future possibilities not just the past results.

Third, if the decision is to close TNVA, my hope is that it is made based on the implementation of the model, not on the overall virtual concept. Virtual learning has great promise and it can serve the right students remarkably (when implemented correctly).

So, what is my answer? Actually I can see both sides of the argument. However I can't help but give thought to the faces of the 1300 students.

Perhaps the real question is what is best for each one of them?

houston@figment-consulting.com

Questions from readers on K12, Agora, TNVA, Connections, virtual learning, and more.

Since my Monday blog about K12 I have been inundated with emails, many of them posing some good questions. As I did previously, I thought I would answer them here. I do appreciate each and every person who takes time out of their day to read what I have to say -- whether they agree with my viewpoint or not is irrelevant. So, if you are reading this, thank you for taking time to do so. Questions (and comments) are always welcome.

Let's dive in shall we.

Q1: In your post about the problems K12 is having you referenced the core issue(s) they are not addressing but did not identify them. What do you think those core issues are?

I purposely did not mention them on Monday but have alluded to them in other posts about virtual schools overall. Would like to point you in the direction of my post Virtual Schools Manifesto: Nine Essential Ingredients for a more detailed answer.

Q2: Do you think the K12 stock price will continue to drop?

While I invest in stocks regularly I am not one to follow for advice on this. My belief though is it will mirror the overall stock market to some degree and continue to be a wild roller coaster ride. News out of North Carolina should help boost it temporarily, along with my belief that the Tennessee Virtual Academy will be renewed due primarily to the departure of TN Ed Commissioner Kevin Huffman late last year.

I checked this morning and it was in the $10 range which is lower than I anticipated it would fall. Investors have a much different measuring rod in terms of the success for K12, and it has little to do with academics (unless they impact growth and margins).

Q3: K12 and Connections Academy were approved recently in North Carolina to open up two pilot programs for the state. If they are as bad as you say they are, why are the leaders in North Carolina approving them to open? Perhaps you are missing something after all.

It is a fair question, and appreciated. I would say though that the legislature in North Carolina mandated the approval of two pilot schools to start in the fall of 2015 thereby restricting what the educational leaders could do. Only two respondents replied to the RFP that was sent out (K12 and Connections), so in effect, they only had two to select from in order to meet the legislature requirements.

Encourage you to read this article to see the dilemma this has created in North Carolina. Demand for virtual is great in this state, and I expect it to mirror Georgia to some degree. It's unfortunate more providers did not respond to the RFP.

Q4: In the Bloomberg article you said that your experience in Tennessee Virtual Academy was not good, and you pulled your kids out after the first year. Yet, TNVA continues to enroll thousands of students each year so clearly it is having some kind of positive impact in the state. Why were you so down on it?

What I shared in the article was only a portion of what I could have shared about our personal experience with TNVA. And, as I mentioned to the author of the article, it was not to say TNVA was not working for everyone, it was to share our experience with it.

We as a family embrace the virtual school concept and believe it has a vital place in the world of education. However, I do stand by my assertion that the current model is broken, and tweaks to the model will not produce adequate results. If they did, we would have seen it by now.

It is what I call the lost potential. Virtual schools are struggling to fulfill their original mission and purpose because they have tried to mirror the public school system. In doing so, they are losing out on the potential of what they could accomplish. One need only look at the landscape across the country and quickly understand it is hard to find a virtual school that is thriving. It's not too late though to re-imagine what virtual could be.

Note: The Bloomberg article referenced is from last year, and authored by John Hechinger concerning K12, and virtual learning.

Q5: I recently left Agora Cyber and things there are not good. The new people who have come in to run the school are, in reality, driving it over a cliff. Do you think they made the right decision to leave K12 and manage the school on their own?

Time is the true answer to this question. Time will tell us if the decision was the right one. Sometimes though we make the best decision we can with all of the facts we have, then we must work hard to make it the right decision afterwards.

Q6: Do you think blended will overtake virtual?

Emphatic YES. Blended learning (or flipped as it is sometimes referenced) is the new golden child in education, and will be for years to come. It is becoming the go-to solution for all educational ills.

At the end of the day though I hope it is more of an AND than an OR. Within districts we don't have to do blended or virtual? Why not blended and virtual? Why not blended, virtual, classroom, flipped, disruptive, and mobile?

Education has multiple issues going on which requires multiple solutions. Let's embrace public schools, charter schools, private schools, homeschool, and alternative schools with the understanding that the ultimate goal is learning.

And with that I will leave it for today. Thanks again for reading, thanks for writing, and thanks for caring.

houston@figment-consulting.com

There's nothing wrong with profit.

Recently an article in Bloomberg Businessweek was released in which I was interviewed relating my story and opinion geared toward my time at K12 and my personal experience with the Tennessee Virtual Academy.

I won't recount the article here, nor will I revisit some of the responses provided by K12 to the areas in which I was quoted (at least not for now).

What I do want to do though is to make it clear that I have nothing against companies earning profits -- even those working in the world of education. I do this because I have had numerous people reach out to me, and in the course of our conversations this topic continues to come up.

It is my opinion that K12 placed profits ahead of educating the kids, as I was quoted in the article. However, that does not mean I have anything against K12 earning a profit off of what they do and provide.

Recently I had breakfast with an educational entrepreneur and we were discussing for-profit companies and education -- can they mix? Is it right? etc.

She said to me, "Without margins their can be no mission."

While that is such a good point, it is however, not the point. The point in earning profits and putting profits ahead of educating students has everything to do with where you place your focus, your energy, your attention.

If you focus primarily on expanding your margins, then you must make decisions and sacrifices in order to increase them. If, on the other hand, you focus primarily on fulfilling your mission, you actually have the potential to, in turn, expand your margin.

It is not about profit vs education. It is instead about priorities. A for-profit company can exist in the world of education, serve a great purpose, and be a profitable company.

Ok, now I feel better about the article. Perhaps this provides a little more context to my quote.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Why I am passionate about virtual learning.

Passions tend not to arise by choice. Instead they tend to grow organically. Sometimes they are all about filling an unmet need. Other times, they grow out of the desire to correct something that has gone wrong. Other times they do both.

My passion for virtual learning has grown and developed over the past fourteen years. I was there in the beginning when the first full-time virtual schools launched in Pennsylvania and Colorado. After joining K12 later that year, I spent the next several years traversing the country speaking with thousands upon thousands of families, opening schools in a myriad of states from California to Georgia to Ohio to Idaho, and so on.

More importantly though, we began using it within our own home when my oldest was in first grade (she is now a sophomore in college). We home educated our kids at first using the K12 curriculum. We then covered the range of possibilities by using K12 via their two online private schools (iCademy and George Washington University Online High School), and we even enrolled our two boys in the Tennessee Virtual Academy the first year it opened (we subsequently pulled them out after the first year).

All of this over the past fourteen years gave me an intimate look into the possibilities, the potential, and the promise that virtual schooling had within it. It also offered me a glimpse into its shortcomings, issues, and many of the problems the current model suffers from inherently.

What I believe though is the concept of virtual learning still remains a disrupting idea.

For me, it's personal. Virtual, or online, learning was good for us. It continues to be that way with our two boys. And now we have a fourth starting on her learning journey. It has allowed us to instill a life philosophy within our children that will set them upon a firm foundation of choosing themselves.

For me, it's professional. I believe in the concept of virtual and I continue to believe it has the power to revolutionize the educational paradigm. I also understand who it can serve and how it can be implemented in order to fulfill the original promise it held over a decade ago.

Is it time to re-imagine virtual learning? Absolutely. However, we must first separate the concept from the current implementation model.

This is why I work with clients who are passionate about "doing virtual right." We cannot tweak the existing model and hope for better results. We must rethink, re-imagine, and reinvent the virtual concept. This is my passion.

houston@figment-consulting.com

North Carolina stands on the virtual school precipice.

The State Board of Education in North Carolina finds itself in a quandary. Only two providers responded to its proposal to open two virtual schools in the state next year: K12 and Connections.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/22/4256223/two-apply-to-run-virtual-public.html

In their neighboring state of Tennessee, the Commissioner of Education has threatened to close Tennessee Virtual Academy due to ongoing poor academic results. In Massachusetts, the K12 virtual academy there has been placed on probation due to academic insufficiency. Georgia Cyber Academy (another K12 school) has recently come under fire from the Department of Education in their state. Similar stories can be found in other states as well. Unfortunately the narrative is similar for Connections Academy.

But, what is the SBE to do? They are working under state legislation that, more than likely, was crafted with the assistance of the providers and they are under obligation to open two virtual school pilot programs. This makes it tough to choose correctly when only two applied -- a true definition of a conundrum.

If they proceed along this path, within a year of opening academic results will be below standards, attrition rates at the schools will be high, and the Department of Education in North Carolina will be on the search for solutions from the providers to turn the schools around and set them on a better path.

There is time though. As of yet, North Carolina has not jumped off the precipice into the chasm. So, now is the best time to alter course and lay a foundation built for success in virtual learning. It cannot replicate other states and hope that minor tweaks will produce different results. Instead, it must be bold and now is the time to set that precedent.

If not, and they go ahead and jump, the story at the bottom of the chasm has already been told.

houston@figment-consulting.com