92% benefit academically, according to K12

The press releases sent out by K12 look impressive: 92% of parents in Utah Virtual Academies agree they benefited academically

It is even conducted by Edge Research, so it must be impressive. I mean, 92% is an overwhelming percentage in agreement. And, we all want kids to 'benefit academically.'

Take a closer look at the survey and the results begin to unravel. Let's look at the details:

1. 92% is actually based on the number of parents who responded to the survey, and not an overall percentage of families. That means the survey was conducted as a response survey. This typically means you will receive biased results because it is not representative of the overall population but rather dependent upon the response of the participants of their own volition.

2. According to the survey, to achieve a 100% response rate, the UTVA survey should have received 1,510 responses -- that is how many parents there are in the UTVA database of families.

3. How many responded? 1,000? 800? 500? -- actually, only 142 parents responded -- that equates to a 9% response rate. You read that correctly, only 9% of the potential population base responded.

4. A more accurate assessment would be 92% of the 9% of parents who responded agreed their children benefited academically from the curriculum (130 of the 142). 91% of parents in UTVA did not respond to the survey.

5. This means the headline of the press release is, at best, inaccurate. At worst, well, I will leave that one alone.

What does this mean overall? K12 is working hard to write a story, and they hope you only read the headlines.

It's time to stop blurring the truth. It's time to spend less time on press releases, and more time on crafting a story worth writing that leads to one worth sharing.

houston@figment-consulting.com

North Carolina virtual schools

In October of 2014 I penned the following blog post: North Carolina stands on the virtual school precipice

At the time the state had approved two virtual charter schools -- one from Connections, and one from K12. In the post I suggested the following would happen within one year of their opening:

1. Attrition rates (withdrawal, dropout) would be high

2. Academic results would be below standards

3. The North Carolina Dept of Education would be seeking ways to improve the two schools

Today is June 10, 2016, and the schools are finishing their first year:

1. Withdrawals in North Carolina virtual charter schools continue to soar

2. NC House loosening state regulations -- it appears there is an effort to loosen regulations that count withdrawals, teacher location, number of students teachers can serve, etc. While it is difficult to ascertain what the NCDOE is doing behind the scenes, the legislators appear to be already working to assist the schools by easing the accountability.

As far as academics, the jury is still out. Results for this year are not in yet for public schools.

One little spark of inspiration: To achieve a vastly different output, you must alter the input.

houston@figment-consulting.com

The K12 ship continues to go under water

Over a year ago I penned a blog (Why K12 will struggle) that stated if Agora Cyber pulled their management contract from K12 that the K12 stock would drop into the $13 range, perhaps even as low as $12. Shortly after it was announced that Agora was indeed pulling their management contract, K12's stock plummeted into that range. It is difficult to overcome a loss of 11,000+ students.

The silver lining at the time was K12 continued to provide curriculum to Agora under the new agreement reached. There was spin associated with this new arrangement but what was missed was that it was a temporary association. Within the next 2-3 years, Agora will pull their curriculum from K12 as they work to build their own (and while that is a mess, that is another story entirely).

A few months ago I wrote a blog The K12 ship is sinking and laid out some reasons why I believe they are on a steady decline.

As I write this, their stock price is $8.91 per share. My guess is they would love to see it in the $12-13 range that only a year ago was considered dismal performance.

So, what next? What does the future hold? Of course I can't say for sure but I can point to indicators:

1. Watch what happens when Agora pulls the curriculum

2. Pay attention to the potential closure of Tennessee Virtual Academy at the end of this academic year

3. Pay close attention to the California Attorney General's investigation into for-profit providers which includes K12

4. Watch for other virtual school boards either threaten to or actually pull their management contracts from K12 over the next two years

5. And, pay attention to the academic performance in Maine and North Carolina -- the narrative K12 has wanted to tell the past few years was they were in transition and now putting students first. Both Maine and North Carolina were launched with the new management in place so this will be the true test as to whether or not the transition was real or simply smoke and mirrors

Where there's smoke . . .

houston@figment-consulting.com