Don't believe the lie

Unless it happens to be the truth. And therein lies the difficulty - - discerning what is true and what is not.

What is most disconcerting is how quickly we as consumers make that decision. We quickly form our opinion then look for facts that support it while we tend to ignore potential red flags. Most of the time we do this without realizing it.

So, is it marketers that distort the truth, exaggerate the truth, or do we simply forget to read the fine print, because it is too fine?

houston@figment-consulting.com

Virtual School Manifesto: Essential Ingredient #1

1. Place the teacher-student relationship in the center

The current model of virtual schools proudly places the student at the center, then encircles that student with technology, content, teacher support, intervention, test prep, and more. They message it out as putting students first, revolving around the student, or everything we do is about the student. They each have the student serving as the foundation upon which they are building everything else.

Unfortunately, the foundation is crumbling. And, instead of addressing the real issue, online providers and educators come together at their annual conference in order to showcase new technologies for their Learning Management Systems (LMS) in order to allow more timely teacher interventions. Or, they tout new gaming-type graphics and media that will engage students. Next, they adopt new terms such as competency-based or adaptive learning in order to demonstrate ongoing progress. And, finally, they share best practices among each other when no one is succeeding in such a way that should be followed.

And, when all else fails, they seek to implement variances of the model, moving today toward a blended learning approach instead of full virtual.

All the while they ignore the foundation. What if they were to change the core concept upon which they build? Instead of placing the student at the center, place the teacher-student relationship there and see what possibilities emerge.

A simple change such as that could do wonders for the way in which technology is utilized.

John D. Rockefeller understood this concept at the turn of the last century. No, not the virtual school concept, but rather he understood the real role railroads played in the building of America. Tom Scott and Cornelius Vanderbilt believed railroads were the foundation to build upon. Rockefeller saw it differently.

Rockefeller utilized the railroads in order to transport his product, oil, into the homes of Americans so they could have light. For him, the railroads were merely a conduit to move his product from Point A to Point B. So, when Scott and Vanderbilt, rivalries at the time, combined efforts in order to squeeze more money out of Rockefeller, it backfired on them. Instead of caving in, Rockefeller began to build the nation’s first oil pipelines because he rightly understood the foundation of growth was in the oil, not in the transportation of it.

Fast forward to today and we have another oil v railroad situation. Too many online providers and educators view technology as the oil when in reality it is merely the railroad. And, just as the railroads gave way to the airplanes so too will current technology give way to future advancements -- mobile is outpacing personal computers, tablets are outpacing laptops, and so forth. Ten years ago there was no app industry.

The problem remains in that everyone is focused on building a better railroad, or inventing the airplane in order to replace it. When, in reality, they should be focused on the real oil, in this case, the teacher-student relationship.

In the world of virtual schools it is still the teacher-student interaction that carries with it the potential to inspire learning. The current model relegates teachers to the same level as the technology and asks them to serve as interventionists or mere supporters/cheerleaders. This not only diminishes their role but it also severely inhibits their ability to impact the learning by the student.

Imagine instead a virtual school model that is built upon the foundation of the relationship between the teacher and the student. Imagine a virtual school that understands the vitalness of this interaction and builds everything to encircle it instead of merely the student. This is not to diminish the role of technology, it is merely to ask it to serve the proper focus and foundation.

Teachers inspire learning. Teachers, equipped with powerful technology have the potential to powerfully inspire learning. Technology should serve as the conduit to transport the relationship between the teacher and the student. Technology is not the oil, the relationship is.

I purposely state it as teacher first then student when speaking of the relationship. The teacher goes first in this relationship because they are the ones that can bring out the personal best within each student. They are the originators of the relationship. They are the ones that drive the breadth and depth of the relationship. The teachers are the ones that engage the students therefore they are first in importance, even when it comes to the student.

So, let’s establish our virtual school upon the foundation of the teacher-student relationship. Then, let’s see what emerges as we begin to build.

Taken from Virtual School Manifesto: Nine Essential Ingredients

houston@figment-consulting.com

Alabama Virtual Academy approved for this year

Alabama has now joined the full-time virtual school community by partnering with K12 to open a K-2 school this year, and expanding grades after each year. It is a quick turnaround with school starting September 8 -- mere weeks after gaining approval.

Superintendent Eddie Tyler of Eufaula City Schools, who is partnering with K12, had the following to say in the official press release:

"Our online school will provide families a high-quality option and give students the individualized instruction and support to succeed." 

My guess is Eddie forgot to look north to Tennessee (or ignored the results there altogether). Or, maybe he looked beyond Tennessee for support in making that statement. Just not sure where.

And finally, when does the fiscal first quarter end? That's right, September 30. Interesting.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Students are customers too.

In my Virtual School Manifesto: Nine Essential Ingredients, I make the case for treating students and families as customers.

Recently a Pennsylvania paper asked me about this essential ingredient of mine as it related to Agora Cyber Charter School and their recent Facebook posts from parents stressing out over the start of the school year.

In a previous post I mentioned Agora had severed management ties with K12 last year and launched out on their own voyage. While I am not privy to any details related to the transition, I can tell that each one of the parents posting to their Facebook page of late are asking for the same thing: SERVICE.

In what ways would things be different if these parents each felt like VIP customers? How would the flow of information and communication be different if they were viewed as customers?

Virtual schools are schools of choice. Parents can choose to join, and they can just as easily choose to leave. Virtual schools must embrace the role of customer service and understand the experience is just as important to the learning as the academics.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Data analytics

The answers can be found in the data.

Just make sure you are asking the right questions.

And don't forget, each data point represents a person - - and sometimes they surprise you.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Customer service of a Lifetime

We recently became members of Lifetime Fitness here in our local area. I must say how impressed I have been with the customer service experience.

The place itself has a resort feel to it and has everything you need to maintain a healthy lifestyle, but what puts it over the top is the way they treat the customers.

Well done Lifetime.

houston@figment-consulting.com 

The K12 Inc. ship is sinking

They say the devil is in the details. The earnings announcement by K12 provided some interesting details, many of which were devils.

In response to the announcement I sent out a Tweet that said the same as my blog title for today: The K12 Inc. ship is sinking. It appears it stirred something within those who actually saw the Tweet because I had a flood of emails arrive yesterday -- on both sides of the argument.

In more than 140 characters, here are the main reasons why it is sinking.

1. The elephant in the room.

K12 management can talk all they want to about double-digit growth in international and private pay schools, and institutional and software sales (even throw in non-managed programs for good measure), but the elephant is managed schools and that is on the decline.

Enrollments in managed schools were down 2.2% in the three months ending June 30 when compared to last year, and down 3.9% yoy. Out of the $948 million in revenue, managed schools accounted for almost $814 million of that total revenue.

Last year K12 was able to increase revenue even with declining enrollment which was a job well done. However, that is not a long-term strategy, nor is it sustainable.

As we look to this academic year, they are already substantially behind in enrollments; Tennessee Virtual Academy will probably have to close doors next year which means a further loss in enrollments; and the states on the horizon (such as Alabama) do not have the population or momentum to provide any measurable increase in enrollments.

So, they are touting the revenue from sources other than managed schools. In fact, CEO Nate Davis referred to FuelEd as "the revenue driver moving forward."  But, when you add them up, they only total approximately $130 million in revenue. And, at their current rate of growth, it will take years for these entities to unseat the managed-school elephant that dominates their revenue stream -- which is on the decline.

Keep in mind, all of these numbers include enrollments from newly launched schools in North Carolina and Maine.

2. The legitimacy of the non-managed school growth is in question.

Agora Cyber Charter School severed their management ties with K12 last year. This means enrollments in Agora (over 10,000) shifted from managed schools to non managed schools. See Note 2 under the Enrollment Data. 

Non managed schools showed a 38.5% increase yoy in enrollments and a 36.4% increase yoy in revenue. Remove the average of 10,000 in enrollments from Agora from the equation, and non managed schools actually show a decline in enrollments yoy (along with revenue decline).

Why do I point this out? Agora's first step was to sever management ties with K12, just as COVA (Colorado) did a few years ago. What some are missing though is Agora's intent to sever curricula ties with K12 within the next two years -- once this final contract runs out. This means that the near-term horizon has K12 under the gun to replace 10,000+ enrollments in non managed schools just to remain where they are currently.

Commonly referred to as a false positive. Growth looks great on paper but in reality it was a mere shift in classification that accounted for much of the growth. Couple that with the impending loss of these enrollments, and the current positive has a glaring negative potential on the horizon.

3. Ongoing academic struggles of K12 virtual schools.

I mentioned earlier that Tennessee Virtual Academy (TNVA) will probably be shut down after this year -- it was only kept open by legal maneuvering this year so it is hanging on by a thread. It could stay open if it demonstrates a remarkable turnaround in academic success.

However, that is highly unlikely. This past year intense efforts were undertaken to improve the state test scores by TNVA students on the TCAP tests. The results were dismal. So, to expect a turnaround this year would be foolish.

My prediction is the recently opened schools in North Carolina and Maine will be under the gun this time next year because of poor academic results. Why? Because the K12 marketing machine has it wrong.

4. Marketing, messaging, and purpose is still off base.

In the earnings transcript, Nate Davis refers to the new K12 marketing strategy of using "data analytics to find those students most likely to succeed." He also stated the new messaging "will result in a student body better aligned to our core curricular strengths and therefore substantially more likely to gain academically over time and stay with the program longer."

Sounds pleasant and nice. But, I began this blog with the idea that the devil is in the details. So, let's see what details emerge when we uncover the "core curricular strengths" of this. The answer (and the problem) is found when Nate answers an investor's question related to the new type of student K12 is searching for through it's marketing efforts.

Nate's reply: " . . .centering around a campaign we call Uniquely Brilliant, communicating with parents that this program is about the individuality of your student, it's not my sitting in the classroom of verified students and everybody at the same age. This really is about your child's unique speed." (italics mine)

WRONG. The K12 virtual schools, especially at the high school level, are not set up around the child's unique speed. Remember, we used K12 high school for one of our children, so I have firsthand knowledge here.

I am not going to dive into what the messaging should be. K12 can call me if they are serious about recruiting the right students. Suffice it to say though, this ongoing off-based messaging will continue the trend of high attrition rates, and it still remains about the number of seats filled.

If K12 wants to attract the right type of students, then they need to become the right type of virtual school. There remains a huge disconnect between what is being messaged and what is reality once families enroll.

So, I end this as I began it. The K12 Inc. ship is sinking. It's not going under this year but it is taking on water.

At some point in the near future the K12 narrative they would like you to believe will be shown for what it is.

Then, perhaps we can get on with developing virtual schools that matter, ones that serve their customers the way they deserve.

houston@figment-consulting.com