K12 responds to the report from the charter school advocacy group

The National Alliance for Public Charter Schools recently released a report that calls for stronger oversight of virtual charter schools. Albeit a little weird that the charter school alliance would call out a segment of its own, it is quite telling as to what is going on.

The Alliance's main points are:

* Rethink the ways in which virtual charter schools are governed

* Move quickly to close virtual charter schools that perform poorly

* Remove virtual charter schools from the charter designation

K12, the leader in virtual schools, issued a response to the report. (I imagine Connections will also respond soon)

Their main points are:

* The report issued was not collaborative because virtual charter schools were not consulted

* The report relied on analysis of old data and did not account for recent data

* Most troubling was the report's call for "criteria for admission" essentially removing the ability for the parents to decide on enrollment

* The recommendations from the report to improve virtual charter schools should be applied to all charter schools

We have now entered a very strange season where the charter school movement is trying to distance itself from one of its subsets -- virtual charter schools.

While I have written extensively on the problems and potential solutions associated with mainly K12-managed virtual schools, I do happen to agree with a few points made by K12 in their response:

1. "Criteria admission" would essentially negate the whole idea of school choice associated with virtual schools While I do believe virtual schools should do a much better job of helping families make the best decision for them (being more authentic about the workload, responsibilities, daily requirements, etc.), at the end of the day, it is up to the parent to decide if they are willing to commit to it or not. In reality, it is parent choice, not school choice, meaning the parents choose.

2. The K12 curriculum for grades K - 8 is, in my opinion and experience, one of the best out there. Granted, it has not helped much within the virtual charter school arena in terms of academic achievement and test scores it still remains a gold standard in terms of quality across the board. I happen to believe the academic issues associated with the virtual charter schools have less to do with the curriculum and more to do with the time commitment, workload investment, etc.

At the same time, I do agree with the idea behind the report that BOLD steps must be taken in order to right the virtual charter school ship. Actually, I say burn this ship, and let's build a different one entirely - but that's for another blog post.

The fact of the matter is, everyone agrees that virtual learning works for only some. Those it works for are willing to put in the hard work, and are self-motivated with a strong family unit for support.

However, those who tend to enroll in virtual schools are enrolling to get away from something. They are not enrolling in order to get to something.

houston@figment-consulting.com

Why K12, Inc. will struggle.

As I write this, K12 just today watched its stock value plummet over 5% in one day. Over the past three to four weeks, it has lost almost 25% of its value and is now resting in the $16s.

The question today is 'Why are they struggling?' Below are just a few of the primary reasons:

1. They lost their focus.

This began when they went public almost ten years ago and it has led to the crescendo we see happening now. For K12, the promise of revolutionizing the educational industry was replaced with meeting quarterly expectations and annual earnings per share and revenue targets.

They may like to tout "putting students first" but actions unfortunately paint a different picture. Their focus is, and has been for some time, on other areas.

2. The lost their visionary.

Founder Ron Packard severed all ties with K12 on June 30 of this year (except I assume for personal shares of stock). Having worked with Ron for almost 12 years, he had his shortcomings and faults as we all do. However, one area where he excelled was casting the vision of what K12 could be.

By doing this he was able to overcome ongoing issues with partner schools and continue relationships with them. Though he left K12 just a few months ago, his influence was diminished as far back as almost two years ago.

So, it is no coincidence that within the past eighteen months Colorado Virtual Academy broke off management relations with K12, Agora Cyber recently issued an RFP to sever ties with them, and K12-managed schools in California, Ohio, and other states are waiting in line to possibly do the same.

Why? The main reason is without Ron's impact, relationships with K12 have now become more of a business decision centered around school performance, management expenses, and P&L statements.

3. A multi-page report cannot overcome a headline.

Do a quick search for Agora Cyber, TNVA, CAVA@Kern, OHVA, or even K12 and you will see headlines spotlighting poor and even dismal student performance on state tests. You will also see efforts to close down Tennessee Virtual Academy (TNVA) and CAVA@Kern.

K12's response to all of this? Issued a multi-page report in an effort to counter the headlines.

First, in-depth responses tend not to overcome headlines (need proof - just watch the elections this year). Or, remember "if the glove doesn't fit, you must acquit." So, whether or not the evidence K12 presented in the report was accurate or not doesn't matter. Perhaps it is true that the longer students stay with K12 the better they perform (though that argument could be made in many schools) and perhaps it is true that Scantron tests are better measurements of student performances than state tests. None of this matters.

What matters is that the headlines are directing the narrative. And, those headlines are saying that K12 is failing. Until K12 schools can demonstrate strong academic performance on the state tests, it really doesn't matter if the report they issued was fifty pages, or five hundred.

All of this leads to the next question -- 'Will their struggles continue?' I would answer this with a strong YES. In fact, I predict that K12 is headed down a slope that will only get steeper increasing the rate at which they will struggle.

Watch for their stock price to nosedive into the $12-13 range (if not more) if Agora leaves. In addition, it will potentially create a cascade of other K12-managed schools following Agora's lead causing further erosion in value.

Tennessee Virtual Academy (TNVA) is in its last year unless it can demonstrate a level of academic performance that it has not been able to do during its entire existence. The TN Ed Commissioner has said that if they cannot meet the expected performance level he is closing their doors at the end of this academic year. Again, this will create a crescendo effect in other states where K12 is presently.

Finally, current issues in Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and other states could be obstacles in K12's efforts to expand into new states such as North Carolina, or expand enrollment caps in other states where it already operates schools. And I haven't even mentioned slowing growth rates in virtual school enrollments in many states (Ohio at .5%), increased costs, increased competition, unionization efforts of teachers in K12-managed schools, and the exodus of corporate staff.

Is it too late for K12 to change course? First, one would need to ask how strong the desire is to change course, or if there is one from the current leadership team? Or, is there an exit strategy involved that is playing itself out already?

It will be interesting to watch. Unfortunately, it will be the students and families who pay the real price.

houston@figment-consulting.com